In the United States, the urgent countermeasure against the super-speed of the Covid-19 is social isolation and blockade of hundreds of millions of people, along with strengthening the capacity to treat patients before Vaccine is made.
However, bailouts of cash to hundreds of millions of people along with a series of disruptions will cause damage that will cause the inevitable economic downturn for the United States and its consequences over the whole world.
Will the huge bailout packages worth trillions of dollars be enough to help the US cope with Covid-19 pandemic and save the collapse of the economy, how to spend and allocate it appropriately and effectively? The article is based on the perspective of Dr. Pham Do Chi in Florida, who used to advise General Secretary Kaysone Phomvihane of Laos and President Togo.
Kristalina Georgieva, General Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), announced Friday March 27 in Washington D.C. that the world economy was in recession and currently 81 countries are urgently asking for emergency aid for the financial assistance of this important international institution.
She added that the IMF is ready to intervene with a financial package of $1,000 billion to help its member countries cope with the recession threat, stemming from Covid-19 pandemic.
The above confirmation shows that the Coronavirus pandemic has led to the global economic crisis and the important role that can call the intervention of the two largest international financial institutions: IMF and World Bank (WB).
But it is important to say right away that the IMF and WB cannot use their huge financial capacity to provide the usual bailout package with stimulus measures following the US-UK model against the recent recession.
Living in the US, I realized that a large part of the bailout package used to subsidize individuals through a crisis due to job losses and businesses suspended operations was put into debt, but careful observation It can be immediately seen that the dollar or pound thrown into the daily economic life is not necessarily effective in stopping the evil Covid-19 from raging relentlessly and causing illness and casualties to increase exponentially a weekl.
The US and Western European countries to order lockdown and isolation is the cause of paralysis of travel and economic activities.
If the epidemic cannot be effectively prevented, the economy will go deeper and further. Therefore, it has been predicted that with the terrible spread of the disease in the US, the massive $ 2.200 billion bailout is just the beginning, the United States will need additional packages of several trillion after the next few months. .
Taking a quick look at the key moments of the Wuhan, pandemic, China missed the opportunity to prevent the scale of the outbreak from around early December 2019 stemming from Wuhan.
And China has suffered severe consequences when the pandemic broke out in the country and led to the travel blockade of 600-700 million people in most major provinces, followed by the collapse of the whole economy so far.
The United States was too subjective and misinterpreted the situation from the beginning.
The lesson from China and the disregarding statements at the beginning of the above epidemic until mid-January 2020 have been repeated by the United States itself since the end of January 2020 when the first infectious patient in the US Washington state on the west coast of the United States.
On the East Coast, the federal central government misjudged the situation over the course of 5-6 weeks, due to the lack of testing facilities across the country to not know that the infection had spread so widely, and was unable to make it in time blockade orders promptly.
From the beginning of March, when there are more testing tools, it is time to catch the situation of the epidemic, it is too late to effectively prevent the spread.
From the lack of testing tools, the “shattering” situation in several major US states, especially New York State and typically New York City (NYC), has shown that the United States is lacking in everything else. : protective equipment such as facemasks and protective clothing suitable for health workers, testing centers, rapid test kits, hospitals or specialized Covid-19 treatment areas, ventilators , and especially the medicines are still in the rough testing phase; not to mention the vaccines still need 12-18 months for the first accurate scientific results.
Now that the pandemic has become a catastrophe for the US, the US recession can become a global recession, and will spread back around the world if the US does not have drastic treatment policies. And most effectively in the next few months!
And that is why the stock market collapsed, but the writer did not want to mention in this article!
Dr. Pham Huu Chi stated the point.
He particularly emphasized two options now for the US.
1) First, the Central Government must employ commanders who must be experienced medical experts on infectious diseases, and empower the Governors to coordinate in each state, agreeing on such tasks as declare blockade, establish a hospital or specialized treatment area, order a good mask and protective equipment for health workers, establish a testing area and order more and more testing equipment from the area. domestic private sector (instead of by CDC) and especially import immediately from abroad (Korea, Japan).
As for treatment, it will need to build more ventilators and establish strategic drug stores, including some things that have been used effectively in Asia such as Korea, China …
2) Secondly, the Central Government only provides general strategies, broadly empowers states to implement the detailed anti-epidemic plans mentioned above, and especially to appeal to charities. Large private or private donations sponsor anti-panidemic programs in each state.
The writer is inclined to this proposal because of the wide range of private initiatives and generous voluntary financial contributions that can be mobilized, and the widely decentralized organization appropriate to local conditions because time is too long rush,” Dr. Pham Huu Chi analyzed.
Anti-pandemic solutions require connecting the whole world, including Vietnam.
In this process, the IMF and the World Bank also helped powers such as the US, Western Europe and Japan to have the means to prevent the epidemic faster, thanks to their assignment in the member countries, the organization of production and distribution, preventive and treatment tools, or vaccines.
The IMF will act as a financial adviser and supplier. In addition to providing financing to developing countries, WB may also provide technical advice and supervision.
The IMF and the World Bank may provide funding and coordinate with OECD countries to organize the production and distribution of equipment and medicines related to epidemic prevention as follows:
• establishing a new small international organization (“Oversight Organization“) to establish and monitor the following, assigned to specialized countries.
• Production of masks, protective clothing and disinfectant solutions: China and Southeast Asian countries including Vietnam, which have low labor costs;
• Production of test equipment: Korea and Japan have experienced and high scientific level;
• Manufacture of ventilators: Japan, USA and Western European countries;
• further research and production of some available remedies: France (Plaquenil); USA (Remdevisir; Hydroxychloroquine …)
• Research and manufacture of vaccines within 12-18 months: USA, Japan, Western Europe, China …
These activities will create a new economy – health support for all participating countries, both fighting epidemics, creating jobs and boosting exports.
Illness, death and bad psychology are problems that need to be addressed.
The upcoming intervention of the IMF and the World Bank, if any, of US and UK monetary and fiscal measures could not respond to the sickness and the psychological situation that is crippling all world economies.
The IMF, despite its trillions of dollars, cannot send the delegation to rescue 81 countries at once and offer desirable stimulus measures, because it is important for the necessary therapy: helping member countries to stop the Covid-19 early.
All must depend on the locomotive that the United States and Western Europe stop the disease and reestablish economic activities to recreate the “aggregate demand” level for other countries in the world in the recovery period: that is the real stimulation. in the future, the stimulus policy of the IMF now does nothing for those 81 countries.
If the money of the IMF and the World Bank, if it is enough, is only for emergency and temporary relief, not for stimulating economies, so other solutions like the above can contribute to helping the world fight agaist pandemics and laying the foundation for future global cooperation, when humanity faces other challenges.
Dr. Pham Huu Chi reached conclusions.
Hoang Trung from Hanoi – Thoibao.de (Translated)